Will Estoril Praia qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+42.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.80
Probability (last 7 days)
+41.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 42pp over 24h
Now 50¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 98.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 783.9h
- 08:06SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+42.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +42.5pp at 17:00 (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
- 08:06 · +42.0pp → 50¢
- 07:00 · +42.0pp → 50¢
- 06:00 · +42.0pp → 50¢
- 05:00 · +42.0pp → 50¢
- 03:00 · +42.0pp → 50¢
- 02:00 · +42.5pp → 50¢
- 00:00 · +42.0pp → 50¢
- 17:00 · +42.5pp → 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Conference League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 Primeira Liga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Conference League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the Primeira Liga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UEFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (98.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.