Will Arouca qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+48.3pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$1.91
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 48pp over 24h
Now 50¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 98.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 785.3h
- 06:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+48.3pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: -45.8pp at 1d ago (to 1¢).
Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
- 12:00 · -45.8pp → 1¢
- 11:00 · -45.8pp → 1¢
- 09:00 · -45.3pp → 2¢
- 07:00 · -45.4pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -45.6pp → 1¢
- 1d ago · -45.7pp → 1¢
- 1d ago · -45.8pp → 1¢
- 2d ago · -45.6pp → 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 49¢+43.0pp
Will Benfica qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Sports · Vol $5.00
- 50¢+41.0pp
Will Estoril Praia qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢+1.5pp
Will Famalicão qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Gil Vicente qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢+41.6pp
Will Moreirense qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Other · Vol $5.00
- 50¢+41.9pp
Will Porto qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Sports · Vol $5.00
- 50¢+41.9pp
Will Alverca qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Other · Vol $5.00
- 50¢+46.9pp
Will Rio Ave qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Other · Vol $5.00
- 0¢-1.1pp
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?
Other · Vol $398.7K
- 6¢0.0pp
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Other · Vol $292.7K
- 3¢+0.3pp
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Other · Vol $209.4K
- 28¢-5.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $193.4K
- 37¢-17.0pp
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?
Other · Vol $192.5K
- 22¢-16.0pp
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?
Other · Vol $186.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Conference League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 Primeira Liga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Conference League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the Primeira Liga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UEFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (98.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.