Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?
Probability
83¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-3.9pp
24h Vol
$9.25
Liquidity
$12.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 735.5h
- 08:29SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 736h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 83¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 84¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 83¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 87¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.6pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.8pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.7pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 77¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 75¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.3pp
to 75¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 75¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.9pp
to 75¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.4pp
to 85¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 81¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 82¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 81¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 77¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 76¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 83¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 83¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 84¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).