Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$123.31
Liquidity
$8.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-11.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $8.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.4h
- 13:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:34PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 4¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.2pp
to 4¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.7pp
to 4¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.7pp
to 4¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.7pp
to 4¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.6pp
to 4¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.6pp
to 4¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 6¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 6¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 6¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 6¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.6pp
to 4¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.7pp
to 4¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.8pp
to 4¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.8pp
to 4¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.8pp
to 4¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.1pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.6pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).