Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.4pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.3K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (21.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 21.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (21.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5850.2h
- 05:46SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.4pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: -37.0pp at 11:00 (to 12¢).
Show top 8 of 13 hourly moves
- 05:46 · -17.5pp → 12¢
- 04:00 · -21.6pp → 12¢
- 03:00 · -33.1pp → 12¢
- 01:00 · -36.5pp → 12¢
- 20:00 · -11.5pp → 12¢
- 19:00 · -11.5pp → 12¢
- 13:00 · -33.6pp → 12¢
- 11:00 · -37.0pp → 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 8¢-0.4
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 18¢+6.5
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 6¢-4.5
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 6¢+0.5
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 13¢-3.5
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
Other · Vol $2.13
- 20¢-0.5
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 20¢+0.4
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 18¢+2.5
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Other · Vol $26.29
- 6¢-31.0
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $837.4K
- 100¢+4.1
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $684.7K
- 47¢-17.5
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $632.8K
- 18¢-71.4
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?
Other · Vol $491.7K
- 0¢-8.3
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $474.1K
- 100¢+2.5
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $429.5K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.