Tight-Talk
0xb687f00464e33934f5d591f224e71c3559ecaee5
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$12.1K
Total PnL
$-2.4M
Realised
$-2.1M
Win rate
10%
168 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
283225 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$708.06
$-991.29
- YES
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
79566 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$596.75
$-24.82
- YES
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?
235919 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$589.80
$-806.13
- YES
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?
172477 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$431.19
$-774.59
- YES
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
76684 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$421.76
$-177.29
- YES
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
42547 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$404.19
$71.82
- YES
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
39169 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$372.11
$66.12
- YES
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?
247493 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$371.24
$-999.87
- YES
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?
142154 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$355.38
$-521.14
- YES
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?
138564 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$346.41
$-511.72
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.00Jul 25, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.85Jul 25, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$55.00Jul 25, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$147.20Jul 25, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$83.17Jul 25, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 25, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$20.00Jul 25, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$78.50Jul 25, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.00Jul 25, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.00Jul 25, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.04Jul 25, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.64Jul 25, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.96Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?$3.00Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?$0.11Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?$0.20Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?$0.20Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?$0.20Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?$0.20Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?$0.20Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$44.9K
Trades
2
Buy share
0%
Window
Jun 3, 06:01 UTC → Jul 2, 09:16 UTC
- SELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.5K@35¢Jul 2, 09:16 UTC
- SELLWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.8K@11¢Jun 12, 17:14 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 168 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 6 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
168 closed markets, 10% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$6.5K
1 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
limited
6 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
$17.2K · 38% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $8.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 08:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 09:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 168 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.