SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 1, 2026
Creator

Will George Pickens play for Houston Texans in 2026-27?

Probability

8¢

1h

+3.2pp

24h

+6.4pp

24h Vol

$62.00

Liquidity

$92.12

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Resolution-source risk

15% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    15% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
2
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$500
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$92
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1semantic_risk_kernelmethodology_runtime_boundarypromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official NFL data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (15.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.8pp 7d
1007550250
8¢
Jul 14, 2026, 20:00 UTCJul 21, 2026, 19:12 UTC
updated 19:12:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-21T19-12Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 6pp over 24h

    Now 8¢; +3.2pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 15.7¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive
Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official NFL data

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will George Pickens play for Houston Texans in 2026-27? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will George Pickens play for Houston Texans in 2026-27? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 988.8h

    LOW
  • 19:12Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+6.4pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.

Biggest hourly move: -34.5pp at Jul 19, 07:00 UTC (to 10¢).

Show top 8 of 27 hourly moves
  • 15:00 · +22.8pp → 32¢
  • 14:00 · -8.8pp → 1¢
  • 12:00 · -8.7pp → 1¢
  • Jul 20, 01:00 UTC · +18.0pp → 28¢
  • Jul 19, 16:00 UTC · -33.5pp → 10¢
  • Jul 19, 07:00 UTC · -34.5pp → 10¢
  • Jul 18, 19:00 UTC · -10.5pp → 10¢
  • Jul 18, 01:00 UTC · -9.5pp → 10¢
updated 19:12:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 19:12:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhere will George Pickens play in 2026-27?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the next team George Pickens officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If George Pickens does not officially join a new team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If George Pickens joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If George Pickens is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official signing announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NFL and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nfl

Reason

NFL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will George Pickens play for Houston Texans in 2026-27?"?

As of Tue, 21 Jul 2026 19:12:13 GMT, YES is priced at 8% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +6.4pp in the last 24 hours, +3.2pp in the last hour, and -1.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 1, 2026 (2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$62.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $232.79. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $92.12. Spread between best bid and best ask: 15.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

11 wallets
Open on Polymarket