Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Probability
39¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$6.48
Liquidity
$7.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 39¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 391h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $7.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 390.8h
- 17:11SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 391h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 39¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 39¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 39¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 39¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 39¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 44¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 44¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumeurovision.tv
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.