Joyful-Monsoon
0x0b3492ec87748d0f32427e8be4cbc650ff67ffc3
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$9.62
Total PnL
$-192.46
Realised
$477.14
Win rate
71%
163 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Republican Party win the MD-07 House seat?
144 shares @ 4.6¢·now 3.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.46
$-2.20
- YES
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
314 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.45
$-0.33
- YES
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 40% and 44.9%?
162 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$1.70
$-0.78
- YES
Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?
1967 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.84
- YES
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?
1656 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-15.63
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on January 2?
1402 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.11
- YES
Will Odessa A'zion win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
1373 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-16.48
- YES
Will Player 172 win Beast Games: Season 2?
1206 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 23?
1099 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-7.07
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
1095 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the TX-14 House seat?$1.52Aug 3, 17:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the NY-12 House seat?$0.15Aug 3, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the MI-01 House seat?$0.03Aug 3, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the MI-01 House seat?$2.69Aug 3, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?$2.05Aug 3, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NJ-06 House seat?$0.06Aug 2, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NJ-06 House seat?$0.52Aug 2, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?$1.45Aug 2, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?$0.23Aug 2, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?$0.31Aug 2, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?$0.41Aug 2, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?$0.49Aug 2, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?$0.37Aug 2, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYLai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?$0.29Aug 2, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYLai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?$0.28Aug 2, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYLai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?$0.26Aug 2, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYLai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?$0.28Aug 2, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?$4.01Aug 2, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?$0.66Aug 2, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?$3.32Aug 2, 12:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 163 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
163 closed markets, 71% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 21:52 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 17:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 163 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.