Will Germany be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$7.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 491h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 4.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 490.6h
- 13:23SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 491h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.6pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 6¢-2.1pp
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 10¢+1.0pp
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 10¢+0.5pp
Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 54¢+3.5pp
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $1.4K
- 21¢-2.9pp
Will Poland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Portugal be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 3¢-0.4pp
Will San Marino be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 36¢0.0pp
Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 1¢-2.3pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.0M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 0¢-39.1pp
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $726.7K
- 59¢-1.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $724.6K
- 66¢+30.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Other · Vol $653.9K
- 85¢-1.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $560.0K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 5 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).