Will Henrik Lundqvist attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals?
Probability
97¢
1h
+4.0pp
24h
+1.2pp
24h Vol
$135.15
Liquidity
$77.11
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 97¢; +4.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Henrik Lundqvist attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Henrik Lundqvist attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 338.2h
Price movement
+1.2pp over the last 24h, now 97¢.
Biggest hourly move: +47.9pp at 11:00 (to 98¢).
Show top 8 of 13 hourly moves
- 21:45 · +47.0pp → 97¢
- 20:00 · +44.0pp → 94¢
- 12:00 · +47.4pp → 97¢
- 11:00 · +47.9pp → 98¢
- 09:00 · +47.4pp → 97¢
- 08:00 · +46.5pp → 96¢
- 06:00 · +44.8pp → 95¢
- 05:00 · +43.0pp → 91¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The 2026 NBA Finals are scheduled for June 3, 2026 through June 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if listed individual attends any game of the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the NBA Finals are canceled or postponed beyond July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Cancellation or postponement of an individual game will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "No" unless all other NBA Finals games have concluded without a qualifying attendance. Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. This market may not resolve to "No" until the final game of the NBA Finals has concluded. The primary resolution source will be the official communication channels of the NBA and/or participating teams; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nba Reason
NBA — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Henrik Lundqvist attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 21:45:23 GMT, YES is priced at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.2pp in the last 24 hours, +4.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 20, 2026 (2026-06-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$135.15 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $247.08. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $77.11. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.