Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
Probability
32¢
1h
+7.5pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$77.42
Probability (last 7 days)
+15.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 776h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 28.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 775.9h
- 16:06SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 776h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 31¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 32¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 31¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 30¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 30¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 31¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 31¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 28¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 24¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 32¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 28¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 35¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings for the 2025–26 season. If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Bundesliga tiebreaking procedures. If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).