Reasonable-Withdrawal
0x8d971b3eebf8bcf7e748d9328dfec7b10a8afbd8
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
99
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-351.33
Realised
$144.57
Win rate
100%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- YES
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
2286 shares @ 15.4¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$422.82
$70.53
- YES
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
2000 shares @ 10.6¢·now 20.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$399.95
$188.12
- YES
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
738 shares @ 10.7¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$70.10
$-8.79
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
600 shares @ 11.1¢·now 9.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$57.90
$-8.50
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
50 shares @ 66.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$43.25
$10.25
- YES
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1240 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$16.74
$2.30
- YES
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco?
898 shares @ 0.8¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$13.46
$6.50
- NO
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
170 shares @ 7.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$11.05
$-0.85
- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
400 shares @ 2.6¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$10.16
$-0.24
- YES
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
600 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$9.90
$-0.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland?$0.04Jun 13, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao?$0.01Jun 13, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?$0.03Jun 13, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland?$0.05Jun 13, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland?$0.80Jun 13, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland?$0.30Jun 13, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?$0.02Jun 13, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?$0.02Jun 13, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Australia 3 - 2 Türkiye?$1.10Jun 13, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland?$0.07Jun 13, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye?$1.60Jun 13, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye?$3.10Jun 13, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?$0.01Jun 13, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?$0.01Jun 13, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland?$0.32Jun 13, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland?$3.60Jun 13, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco?$1.13Jun 13, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYQatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5$7.56Jun 13, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYQatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5$0.43Jun 13, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco?$0.17Jun 13, 15:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 15:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 18:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.