Reasonable-Withdrawal
0x8d971b3eebf8bcf7e748d9328dfec7b10a8afbd8
Quality score
90/100
Open positions
127
Open notional
$944.76
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$2.2K
Win rate
88%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 127- YES
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
2671 shares @ 10.6¢·now 15.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$400.61
$117.71
- YES
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
2385 shares @ 15.4¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$333.97
$-33.73
- YES
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
409 shares @ 12.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.51
$18.26
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
50 shares @ 66.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$41.50
$8.50
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
320 shares @ 9.6¢·now 9.9¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$31.66
$0.96
- YES
Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
52 shares @ 7.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$16.64
$13.00
- NO
Will Dortmund finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
788 shares @ 16.1¢·now 2.1¢·exp May 28, 2026$16.55
$-110.42
- YES
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
904 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$5.42
$-0.90
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 1.5¢·now 2.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.28
$1.28
- YES
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$4.15
$2.15
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.001d ago
- YIELD$0.002d ago
- YIELD$0.006d ago
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$1.206d ago
- TRADEBUYVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?$0.629d ago
- TRADEBUYVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?$0.229d ago
- TRADEBUYVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?$0.629d ago
- TRADEBUYVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?$2.319d ago
- TRADEBUYVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?$0.859d ago
- TRADEBUYVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?$0.559d ago
- YIELD$0.009d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?$10.409d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?$1.609d ago
- TRADEBUYExact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 3 Real Madrid CF?$0.489d ago
- TRADEBUYVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?$4.879d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?$10.009d ago
- TRADEBUYExact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF?$2.409d ago
- TRADEBUYExact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Real Madrid CF?$3.009d ago
- TRADEBUYExact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 Real Madrid CF?$3.409d ago
- TRADEBUYExact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 Real Madrid CF?$3.969d ago
Score breakdown
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 16d ago
- Last active
- 1d ago
Score is a 0–100 composite of open position size, breadth (number of trades), realised + unrealised ROI, win rate on closed markets, and category specialisation.