Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?
Probability
12¢
1h
-0.8pp
24h
-3.3pp
24h Vol
$544.33
Liquidity
$1.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 110.0h
- 10:02SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 110h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:02PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.9pp
to 12¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 12¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 13¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 13¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.4pp
to 19¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.4pp
to 19¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.9pp
to 19¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 19¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 13¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 12¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 13¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.4pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.6pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.7pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.1pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.6pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.9pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.3pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.8pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.3pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.8pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (11.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).