Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April?
Probability
10¢
1h
+3.8pp
24h
+8.1pp
24h Vol
$154.79
Liquidity
$797.38
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 107.8h
- 12:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 108h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 11¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 7¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 6¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.9pp
to 17¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.7pp
to 12¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.6pp
to 16¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.7pp
to 16¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.9pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.8pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.2pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.1pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (18.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).