SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 27, 2026

Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Probability

27¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$146.66

Liquidity

$18.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.5pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 00:00Apr 25, 2026, 23:27
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 1

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 27¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $18.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1488.5h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

10
Same eventFIFA World Cup Group F Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 27, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
fifa.com
Link
fifa.com
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket