Will Jon Hansen and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff election?

• 01
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $2.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Primary elections are scheduled to take place in South Dakota on June 2, 2026. If no candidate receives over 35% of the vote in the first round of the gubernatorial primary, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to the pair of candidates that advance to the runoff of the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary election. If a pairing that is not directly listed in this market advances to the runoff, if a candidate wins the nomination in the first round of the primary election, or if no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". If a candidate qualifies for the runoff, that candidate will count for resolution regardless of whether they later withdraw or otherwise do not participate in the runoff. The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.