Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Probability
32¢
1h
+17.0pp
24h
+8.0pp
24h Vol
$532.79
Liquidity
$3.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+15.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 32¢; +17.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6010.0h
- 13:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:55PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 32¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 14¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 14¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 26¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 27¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 25¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 30¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 31¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 29¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 34¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 27¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 34¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 34¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 32¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 39¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Real Madrid. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Real Madrid; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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