Will K27 Qualify to the EWC Main Event
Probability
96¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+46.0pp
24h Vol
$235.00
Liquidity
$1.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 46pp over 24h
Now 96¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task Will K27 Qualify to the EWC Main Event State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will K27 Qualify to the EWC Main Event State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
+46.0pp over the last 24h, now 96¢.
Biggest hourly move: +70.0pp at 20:30 (to 96¢).
Show top 8 of 18 hourly moves
- 20:30 · +70.0pp → 96¢
- 19:00 · +32.5pp → 83¢
- 13:00 · -24.5pp → 26¢
- 09:00 · +24.0pp → 38¢
- 05:00 · +35.5pp → 50¢
- 23:00 · +24.5pp → 38¢
- Aug 8, 20:00 UTC · +36.5pp → 50¢
- Aug 8, 14:00 UTC · +13.5pp → 26¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team qualifies for the Counter-Strike 2 main event at the Esports World Cup 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A team that is officially placed into the 32-team main-event field by any recognized qualification pathway resolves "Yes". A team that fails to secure a main-event berth, or that is eliminated in a qualifier without earning a spot, resolves "No". If a qualified team withdraws and is replaced, the team actually included in the main-event field is the one that counts. If the EWC 2026 CS2 main event is canceled or the field is not finalized, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the Esports World Cup Foundation (https://esportsworldcup.com) and the tournament organizer, supported by Liquipedia (https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
world cupReason
World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will K27 Qualify to the EWC Main Event"?
As of Sun, 09 Aug 2026 20:30:23 GMT, YES is priced at 96% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +46.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$235.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $235.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 9.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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