Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?
Probability
2¢
1h
-0.7pp
24h
-9.1pp
24h Vol
$8.2K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 136.7h
- 11:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 137h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 3¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 3¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 3¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.6pp
to 3¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 3¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.4pp
to 3¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 3¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.3pp
to 3¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 4¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 5¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 5¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 11¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 12¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 12¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.5pp
to 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the Kelp DAO bridge exploit on April 19, 2026, in which an attacker drained approximately $292M in rsETH via a LayerZero cross-chain messaging vulnerability, leaving rsETH holders on L2 networks with impaired backing. This market will resolve "Yes" if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Kelp DAO has announced or implemented a mechanism to socialize the losses that resulted from this exploit. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". “Socialize the losses” means rsETH holders on mainnet share and absorb part or all of the exploit losses, rather than L2 holders bearing them entirely. The primary resolution source will be official communications from Kelp DAO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).