Will Kevin Schade be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup squad list?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.2pp
24h Vol
$601.29
Liquidity
$2.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-46.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Jun 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 17:29SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 17h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
-4.2pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -41.3pp at Jun 1, 15:00 UTC (to 4¢).
Show top 8 of 36 hourly moves
- 12:00 · +39.5pp → 47¢
- Jun 1, 15:00 UTC · -41.3pp → 4¢
- Jun 1, 14:00 UTC · -41.1pp → 4¢
- Jun 1, 00:00 UTC · -38.5pp → 8¢
- May 31, 22:00 UTC · -39.0pp → 7¢
- May 31, 07:00 UTC · -40.0pp → 6¢
- May 31, 06:00 UTC · -40.5pp → 6¢
- May 31, 04:00 UTC · -39.5pp → 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is announced as a member of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. Only full squad announcements will be considered. Prior cut lists or previous squad lists other than the officially announced squad lists will not be considered. If a player is officially announced as part of the squad but is replaced before the nation’s first game for any reason, the corresponding market will still resolve “Yes”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
2026 fifa world cupReason
FIFA World Cup outright/team markets are Sports even when the team/country name is also a geopolitics keyword.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kevin Schade be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup squad list?"?
As of Tue, 02 Jun 2026 17:29:53 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.2pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -46.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 2, 2026 (2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$601.29 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $966.25. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.