Will Keyla Richardson win American Idol Season 24?
Probability
10¢
1h
-0.8pp
24h
-7.6pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 10¢; -0.8pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 371h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 16.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 370.7h
- 13:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 371h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:17PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.4pp
to 10¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.8pp
to 13¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.7pp
to 14¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.2pp
to 18¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 12¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.8pp
to 10¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.6pp
to 10¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 11¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 14¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.9pp
to 11¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.3pp
to 10¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 12¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.7pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.2pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.2pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.1pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.8pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.9pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.2pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.6pp
to 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The season finale of American Idol is scheduled for May 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the individual who wins Season 24 of American Idol. If for any reason no winner is declared by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the contestant whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be the live broadcast of the show, American Idol, and ABC.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the individual who wins Season 24 of American IdolAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (16.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).