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GeopoliticsExpires Apr 28, 2026

Will King Charles say "Ukraine" during the joint meeting of Congress?

Probability

62¢

1h

+22.0pp

24h

+4.0pp

24h Vol

$214.33

Liquidity

$293.27

Probability (last 7 days)

+31.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:51
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 4pp over 24h

    Now 62¢; +22.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 56h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 12.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Expiry in 56h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 56 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 56.1h

    HIGH
  • 15:52Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 56h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability up 12.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 21.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 22.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 20.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 22.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 24.0pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 22.5pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 20.5pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.0pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.5pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 20.5pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.5pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhat will King Charles say during the joint meeting of Congress on April 28?
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

King Charles is scheduled to participate in a joint meeting of Congress on April 28, 2026. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/01/king-charles-joint-meeting-congress/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if King Charles says the listed term during the joint meeting of Congress scheduled for April 28, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about King Charles's remarks at the joint meeting of Congress scheduled for April 28, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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