Will King Charles say "Ukraine" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Probability
62¢
1h
+22.0pp
24h
+4.0pp
24h Vol
$214.33
Liquidity
$293.27
Probability (last 7 days)
+31.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 62¢; +22.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 56h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 56h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 56 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 56.1h
- 15:52SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 56h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 61¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 57¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 56¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 57¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 57¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 57¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 56¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 57¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 57¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 56¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 56¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 57¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 58¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 58¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 58¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 58¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 58¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 58¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 58¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 57¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 56¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 48¢+22.5pp
Will King Charles say "American" or "America" 15+ times during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $104.13
- 36¢+5.0pp
Will King Charles say "Freedom" 5+ times during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $81.27
- 57¢+12.0pp
Will King Charles say "Mother" or "Mama" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $122.83
- 77¢-1.0pp
Will King Charles say "Independence" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $7.12
- 71¢-4.5pp
Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $13.83
- 51¢-5.0pp
Will King Charles say "George" or "Washington" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $5.54
- 86¢+2.5pp
Will King Charles say "Anniversary" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $97.42
- 81¢+2.0pp
Will King Charles say "Historic" or "History" or "Historical" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $10.7M
- 6¢-1.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $2.0M
- 28¢-20.0pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.1M
- 7¢-2.0pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $875.9K
- 17¢0.0pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $857.2K
- 1¢-5.1pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $844.1K
Market Description
King Charles is scheduled to participate in a joint meeting of Congress on April 28, 2026. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/01/king-charles-joint-meeting-congress/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if King Charles says the listed term during the joint meeting of Congress scheduled for April 28, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about King Charles's remarks at the joint meeting of Congress scheduled for April 28, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).