Will Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally (Harry Styles) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 7, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 7, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally (Harry Styles) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally (Harry Styles) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY... State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Feb 7, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4379.6h
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -38.4pp at 23:00 (to 3¢).
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
8- 36¢-10.0
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Entertainment · Vol $61.79
- 9¢0.0
Will The Life of a Showgirl (Taylor Swift) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 10¢+0.5
Will Lux (Rosalía) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 9¢-1.0
Will The Romantic (Bruno Mars) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 4¢+0.1
Will The Great Divide (Noah Kahan) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 20¢+1.2
Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 15¢+0.7
Will Dandelion (Ella Langley) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 4¢+0.2
Will petal (Ariana Grande) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
Market Description
The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 16, 2026, and the ceremony for February 7, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed album that wins Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards. If an album is not officially nominated for Album of the Year when the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated album whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
albumReason
Question text contains "album" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally (Harry Styles) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?"?
As of Sun, 09 Aug 2026 12:21:45 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Feb 7, 2027 (2027-02-07T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $212.72. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.3¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.