Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?
Probability
22¢
1h
-0.8pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$237.00
Liquidity
$271.00
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Nov 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (44.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 22¢; -0.8pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 44.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Nov 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (44.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Nov 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 3987.1h
- 20:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+7.0pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.
Biggest hourly move: +46.9pp at May 15, 18:00 UTC (to 47¢).
Show top 8 of 62 hourly moves
- 05:00 · -36.2pp → 11¢
- 23:00 · -40.1pp → 6¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · +25.0pp → 25¢
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · +25.3pp → 26¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · +46.9pp → 47¢
- May 15, 15:00 UTC · +23.9pp → 25¢
- May 15, 13:00 UTC · +24.3pp → 25¢
- May 15, 10:00 UTC · +40.9pp → 47¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the next team LeBron James officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If LeBron James does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Los Angeles Lakers”. If LeBron James joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If LeBron James retires or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official acquisition announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the Los Angeles Lakers and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
acquisitionReason
Company acquisition markets are Business.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 20:55:15 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +7.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.8pp in the last hour, and +11.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 1, 2026 (2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$237.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $471.83. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $271.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 44.6¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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