Defiant-Competence-Initiative
0x7bc14171ccb0d3e6bac219ec6a76211826e28db4
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
162
Open notional
$471.8K
Total PnL
$-88.1K
Realised
$285.4K
Win rate
72%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 162- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
89089 shares @ 3.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$88.9K
$86.1K
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
130615 shares @ 47.5¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$71.2K
$9.1K
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
57750 shares @ 60.6¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.5K
$15.6K
- NO
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
40718 shares @ 60.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$40.7K
$16.2K
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
57141 shares @ 60.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$38.0K
$3.7K
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
66183 shares @ 53.7¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$37.4K
$1.8K
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
49146 shares @ 80.6¢·now 73.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$36.0K
$-3.7K
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
94075 shares @ 20.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.8K
$8.9K
- NO
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?
12934 shares @ 41.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$12.9K
$7.6K
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
143857 shares @ 7.9¢·now 8.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.6K
$1.2K
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$0.01Jul 25, 04:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$0.00Jul 25, 04:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$5.8KJul 25, 03:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$0.20Jul 25, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$21.43Jul 25, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$9.00Jul 25, 03:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$0.61Jul 25, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$4.39Jul 25, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$0.24Jul 25, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$0.24Jul 25, 02:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$0.36Jul 25, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$1.00Jul 25, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$3.05Jul 25, 02:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$13.56Jul 25, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$0.00Jul 25, 01:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$0.80Jul 25, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$650.29Jul 25, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$1.71Jul 25, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$1.42Jul 25, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$1.06Jul 25, 01:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$138.3K
Trades
2
Buy share
100%
Window
Jun 3, 15:00 UTC → Jul 12, 06:15 UTC
- BUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.1K@36¢Jul 9, 20:25 UTC
- BUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$37.8K@52¢Jul 1, 20:33 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
72% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 9 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$44.9K
2 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
limited
9 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
$37.8K · 27% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $135.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 00:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 04:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.