0x18ea746b5980179a4e7500d27edd394c3b95e57e
0x18ea746b5980179a4e7500d27edd394c3b95e57e
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$60.83
Total PnL
$-7.60
Realised
$0.19
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 90.4¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.12
$0.12
- NO
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 98.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.95
$0.08
- NO
Trump out as President by June 30?
5 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.93
$0.06
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 12.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.74
$3.95
- NO
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?
3 shares @ 98.6¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.03
$0.03
- YES
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.31
$0.02
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
2 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.02
$0.02
- NO
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
2 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.84
$0.03
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.18
$0.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Dark Winds: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?$1.00Jul 1, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWorld Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken?$1.03Jul 1, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jul 1, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the match not air?$1.04Jul 1, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$1.04Jul 1, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. Sweden: France O/U 0.5$0.00Jun 30, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Sweden: France O/U 0.5$1.03Jun 30, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 30, 20:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 30?$0.51Jun 30, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 30?$1.00Jun 30, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$0.14Jun 30, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$0.16Jun 30, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$0.56Jun 30, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$1.03Jun 30, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$1.01Jun 30, 18:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 30, 18:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 30, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$1.04Jun 30, 18:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30?$1.39Jun 30, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30?$0.00Jun 30, 16:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $0.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 01:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 01:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.