SportsExpires Jul 19, 2026
Creator

Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?

Probability

98¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.3pp

24h Vol

$7.6K

Liquidity

$12.3K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
fifa.com
Link
fifa.com
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+3.3pp 7d
1007550250
98¢
May 27, 2026, 02:00 UTCJun 3, 2026, 01:00 UTC
updated 01:00:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-03T01-00Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $12.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 19, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1103.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 98¢.

updated 01:00:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 01:00:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is a major soccer tournament held from June 11 to July 19, 2026, with games at multiple stadiums across North America. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi takes the field as a player in at least one official match for Argentina during the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the group stage or later. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any on-field appearance as a player will qualify, in regulation, stoppage time, extra time, for a shootout, etc. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

2026 fifa world cup

Reason

FIFA World Cup outright/team markets are Sports even when the team/country name is also a geopolitics keyword.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?"?

As of Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:00:50 GMT, YES is priced at 98% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +3.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 19, 2026 (2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$7.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $195.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $12.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket