UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will London have between 10-15mm of precipitation in May?

Probability

9¢

1h

-2.5pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$50.00

Liquidity

$226.87

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in May, 2026, according to the Met Office
Link
metoffice.gov.uk
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 23:00May 3, 2026, 21:43
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 9¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 12.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 650.3h

    LOW
  • 21:43Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.

Biggest hourly move: -22.5pp at 2d ago (to 16¢).

Show top 8 of 39 hourly moves
  • 2d ago · -21.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -22.5pp → 15¢
  • 2d ago · -22.5pp → 16¢
  • 2d ago · -22.5pp → 16¢
  • 2d ago · -22.0pp → 16¢
  • 2d ago · -21.5pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -22.0pp → 16¢
  • 2d ago · -21.0pp → 17¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventPrecipitation in London in May?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in May, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for May 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of May 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

3 wallets
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