SportsExpires May 17, 2026
Creator

Will M80 qualify to IEM Atlanta 2026 Playoffs?

Probability

50¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.5pp

24h Vol

$19.97

Liquidity

$2.55

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 17, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
pro.eslgaming.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (98.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
50¢
May 11, 2026, 16:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 02:37 UTC
updated 02:37:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T02-37Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 50¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 69h. Spread is extremely wide.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 98.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 69 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 17, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 69.4h

    HIGH
  • 02:37Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 69h. Spread is extremely wide.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.

updated 02:37:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 02:37:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventIEM Atlanta 2026: Qualify to Playoffs
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to which teams qualify for the Playoffs of IEM Atlanta 2026, scheduled to take place from May 11 to May 17, 2026. Ties in standings will be broken according to the official ESL rules. If the IEM Atlanta 2026 is canceled, postponed, or if the official list of IEM Atlanta 2026 Playoffs participants is not published before May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the ESL website (https://pro.eslgaming.com/). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/Intel_Extreme_Masters/2026/Atlanta) may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

iem

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "iem" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will M80 qualify to IEM Atlanta 2026 Playoffs?"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 02:37:22 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$19.97 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $19.97. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.55. Spread between best bid and best ask: 98.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

5 wallets
Open on Polymarket