Martin Shkreli and GCR bet $1m on $DJT being real?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 21, 2024
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 21, 2024
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary social media post and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: @GiganticRebirth
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Martin Shkreli and GCR bet $1m on $DJT being real? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary social media post and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Martin Shkreli and GCR bet $1m on $DJT being real? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
On June 18, GCR (@GiganticRebirth) offered to bet Shkreli $100m on whether $DJT is real (see: https://x.com/GiganticRebirth/status/1803132945655538164) This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Martin Shkreli (@MartinShkreli) and GCR (@GiganticRebirth) confirm they have bet at least $1,000,000 by Friday, June 21, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". In order for the bet to be 'confirmed' Shkreli must place at least $1,000,000 in escrow. If it is publicly confirmed that either GCR or Martin Shkreli has payed out a bet to the other for $1,000,000 or more by the resolution date this market will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be official information from GCR or definitive evidence confirming either Shkreli has escrowed the funds or the bet has been paid out.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Martin Shkreli and GCR bet $1m on $DJT being real?"?
As of Sat, 06 Jun 2026 03:38:25 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 21, 2024 (2024-06-21T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $124.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.7¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
3 wallets- Qualified-Eve5.3K
- Admired-Map4.8K
- Skinny-Commitment2.0K
None.