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EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 27, 2026

Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+7.3pp

24h Vol

$60.8K

Liquidity

$59.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

+37.9pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:22
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 48.6h

    HIGH
  • 11:22Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 49h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 20.9pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 20.4pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 19.6pp

    to 99¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 17.6pp

    to 99¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 19.6pp

    to 99¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 20.4pp

    to 99¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 24.4pp

    to 99¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 23.9pp

    to 98¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 23.4pp

    to 98¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 23.7pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 25.4pp

    to 97¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 23.8pp

    to 95¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 27.5pp

    to 95¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 30.3pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 18.0pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 17.5pp

    to 93¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 93¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 20.5pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.5pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 23.5pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 74¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.0pp

    to 71¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.5pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 27, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Ambiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).