Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+7.3pp
24h Vol
$60.8K
Liquidity
$59.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+37.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 48.6h
- 11:22SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 49h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.9pp
to 100¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.4pp
to 100¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.6pp
to 99¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.6pp
to 99¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.6pp
to 99¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.4pp
to 99¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.4pp
to 99¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.9pp
to 98¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.4pp
to 98¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.7pp
to 96¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.4pp
to 97¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.8pp
to 95¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.5pp
to 95¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.3pp
to 96¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 94¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 94¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 94¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 92¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 92¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 71¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 69¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 69¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 68¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 65¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
5- 0¢-5.1pp
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?
Entertainment · Vol $14.1K
- 0¢-0.4pp
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?
Entertainment · Vol $13.0K
- 0¢-0.4pp
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?
Entertainment · Vol $18.8K
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 60m?
Entertainment · Vol $32.5K
- 0¢-0.5pp
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?
Entertainment · Vol $31.6K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.the-numbers.com/Ambiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
20 wallets- Bronze-Toll-Chasuble24.7K
- Insignificant-Affair12.8K
- Late-Birch7.2K
- Skeletal-Trailpatrol6.6K
- Zesty-Inevitable4.9K
- Sweet-Failure39.5K
- 0xa5ef…29669.0K
- Careless-Venti8.9K
- Active-Broad6.6K
- 0x854d…deb04.0K