Sweet-Failure
0xecaa8806a9a05049d7d5260a33dc924220e377a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$482.6K
Total PnL
$-1.3M
Realised
$-370.3K
Win rate
4%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
138465 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$138.5K
$26.3K
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
109997 shares @ 48.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$110.0K
$56.7K
- YES
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
64696 shares @ 77.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$64.7K
$14.8K
- NO
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?
32450 shares @ 68.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$32.5K
$10.2K
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
42157 shares @ 75.4¢·now 74.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$31.4K
$-357.95
- YES
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?
26479 shares @ 68.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$26.5K
$8.3K
- YES
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?
17223 shares @ 56.5¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$17.0K
$7.2K
- NO
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
21958 shares @ 73.4¢·now 64.1¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$14.1K
$-2.0K
- NO
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?
15745 shares @ 60.9¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$13.7K
$4.1K
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
16899 shares @ 66.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$12.1K
$929.46
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$3.0KJul 25, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$1.99Jul 25, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$10.35Jul 25, 00:52 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$66.39Jul 25, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$203.86Jul 25, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$342.72Jul 25, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$650.76Jul 25, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?$35.85Jul 25, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?$0.18Jul 25, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$452.87Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?$39.21Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$42.44Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$530.00Jul 25, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$159.00Jul 25, 00:06 UTC
- REWARD$38.68Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$22.55Jul 24, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$22.55Jul 24, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$2.1KJul 24, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$5.64Jul 24, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$65.33Jul 24, 23:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$187.4K
Trades
4
Buy share
22%
Window
May 30, 01:50 UTC → Jul 5, 07:17 UTC
- SELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$146.5K@100¢Jul 5, 07:17 UTC
- BUYWill Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?$10.3K@55¢Jun 22, 20:52 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$8.0K@62¢Jun 13, 16:54 UTC
- BUYWill Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?$5.6K@76¢Jun 2, 23:53 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 6 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
69 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$146.5K
1 trades
Buy share
22%
Sample
limited
6 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
$146.5K · 78% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $423.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 20:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 01:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.