Will "Michael" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Probability
1¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$3.3K
Liquidity
$4.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 1¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 33h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $4.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
Expiry in 33h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 33 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 33.1h
- 14:54SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 33h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.7pp
to 1¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 1¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Michael (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on April 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).