Will Michelle "MJ" Jones die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
Probability
38¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$28.78
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the initial theatrical release of "Spider-Man: Brand New DayTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (73.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Spread cost
Wide spread — 73.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the initial theatrical release of "Spider-Man: Brand New DayTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (73.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: to the initial theatrical release of "Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Michelle "MJ" Jones die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Michelle "MJ" Jones die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 38¢0.0
Will Bruce Banner die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 38¢0.0
Will Ned Leeds die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 31¢0.0
Will Frank Castle die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 11¢0.0
Will Mac Gargan die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 38¢0.0
Will Lonnie Lincoln die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 38¢+12.0
Will Peter Parker (Tom Holland) die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
Other · Vol $0.00
Market Description
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is scheduled to premiere on July 31, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "Spider-Man: Brand New Day". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who are confirmed dead before "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" begins during the film will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will qualify. Only events depicted in the official "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" film will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official film, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, books, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the film itself. The market will resolve according to the initial theatrical release of "Spider-Man: Brand New Day". If no theatrical release occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Michelle "MJ" Jones die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?"?
As of Thu, 23 Jul 2026 22:00:18 GMT, YES is priced at 38% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.02. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $28.78. Spread between best bid and best ask: 73.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.