Will "Money" be said during the next episode of the Storytime with the Second Lady Podcast?
Probability
10¢
1h
-33.0pp
24h
-38.0pp
24h Vol
$41.58
Liquidity
$60.04
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
40% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
40% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-37.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 38pp over 24h
Now 10¢; -33.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA status is disputed and the spread is extremely wide. Verify the resolution source before treating price as the market view.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 19.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary social media post and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: @Storytimewithth
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task Will "Money" be said during the next episode of the Storytime with the Second Lady Podcast? State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary social media post and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will "Money" be said during the next episode of the Storytime with the Second Lady Podcast? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 31, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 678.4h
- 17:32SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA status is disputed and the spread is extremely wide. Verify the resolution source before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
-38.0pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: -17.5pp at 17:00 (to 27¢).
Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
- 17:00 · -17.5pp → 27¢
- 14:00 · +4.5pp → 49¢
- 09:00 · +5.0pp → 49¢
- 08:00 · +5.0pp → 49¢
- 06:00 · +5.0pp → 49¢
- 05:00 · +5.0pp → 49¢
- 01:00 · +5.0pp → 49¢
- 00:00 · +5.0pp → 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The Storytime with the Second Lady podcast releases episodes on https://www.youtube.com/@StorytimewiththeSecondLady. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the Storytime with the Second Lady Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such episode of the Storytime with the Second Lady Podcast is aired by July 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the next released episode from (https://www.youtube.com/@StorytimewiththeSecondLady). For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
podcastReason
Question text contains "podcast" — matched the Culture keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Money" be said during the next episode of the Storytime with the Second Lady Podcast?"?
As of Fri, 03 Jul 2026 17:32:47 GMT, YES is priced at 10% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -38.0pp in the last 24 hours, -33.0pp in the last hour, and -37.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 31, 2026 (2026-07-31T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$41.58 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $41.58. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $60.04. Spread between best bid and best ask: 19.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.