Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

1. 1

   Up 4pp over 24h

   Now 57¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 391h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $6.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.