SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Probability

25¢

1h

+2.0pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$345.73

Probability (last 7 days)

-10.5pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 13:00Apr 27, 2026, 09:01
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 1

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 25¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5943h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 3

    Wide spread — 26.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5943.0h

    LOW
  • 09:02Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 5943h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 26¢.

Biggest hourly move: -21.5pp at 3d ago (to 22¢).

Show top 8 of 30 hourly moves
  • 3d ago · -11.0pp → 23¢
  • 3d ago · -11.5pp → 24¢
  • 3d ago · -11.5pp → 23¢
  • 3d ago · -21.5pp → 22¢
  • 3d ago · -15.0pp → 23¢
  • 3d ago · -11.5pp → 25¢
  • 3d ago · -11.5pp → 25¢
  • 3d ago · -11.0pp → 25¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Featherweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the official UFC Featherweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (26.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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