Ordinary-Confectionery
0xa5e3044fd953605f9407d58c76e48fd75a394d7e
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$27.8K
Total PnL
$-14.5K
Realised
$52.0K
Win rate
63%
121 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
10211 shares @ 81.3¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.0K
$-283.88
- YES
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
5074 shares @ 29.0¢·now 81.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$4.1K
$2.7K
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
6700 shares @ 69.2¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.0K
$-1.7K
- NO
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2667 shares @ 96.5¢·now 97.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.6K
$22.67
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5079 shares @ 13.8¢·now 47.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.4K
$1.7K
- NO
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
2948 shares @ 85.6¢·now 61.1¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$1.8K
$-722.32
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5529 shares @ 10.7¢·now 26.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.5K
$870.78
- YES
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
6604 shares @ 24.3¢·now 18.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.2K
$-367.52
- YES
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
3429 shares @ 8.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$976.78
$701.58
- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
3246 shares @ 22.3¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$567.99
$-156.99
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.44Jun 13, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?$663.22Jun 12, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?$661.16Jun 12, 03:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.44Jun 12, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump announce another person as the next Director of National Intelligence?$117.67Jun 11, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intelligence?$161.94Jun 11, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.6KJun 11, 19:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad?$300.00Jun 11, 17:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ariana Grande have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?$5.56Jun 11, 14:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tom Vo advance from the CA-45 primary election?$0.32Jun 11, 05:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.45Jun 11, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?$1.5KJun 10, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?$516.25Jun 10, 19:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zachariah Wooden advance from the CA-07 primary election?$113.88Jun 10, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chi Charlie Nguyen advance from the CA-45 primary election?$35.85Jun 10, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chuong Vo advance from the CA-45 primary election?$37.29Jun 10, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Enayat Nazhat advance from the CA-07 primary election?$47.39Jun 10, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election?$352.96Jun 10, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Young Kim advance from the CA-40 primary election?$100.21Jun 10, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joe Kerr advance from the CA-40 primary election?$97.00Jun 10, 05:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $215.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 20:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 121 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.