Will MrBeast hit 490 million subscribers by April 30?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.3pp
24h Vol
$11.4K
Liquidity
$1.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Heavy volume on this book — 6.8× turnover
$11.4k traded against $1.7k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $1.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.7h
- 13:17SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.3pp
to 29¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of subscribers by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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