Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.1pp
24h Vol
$566.13
Liquidity
$2.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 4¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1300.3h
Price movement
-1.1pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.0pp at 3d ago (to 6¢).
Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 4¢
- 3d ago · -7.0pp → 6¢
- 4d ago · -6.0pp → 6¢
- 4d ago · -5.5pp → 7¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of subscribers by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
mrbeastReason
Question text contains "mrbeast" — matched the Culture keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 19:43:36 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -8.2pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$566.13 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.2¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
