Tremendous-Fritter
0xc0a612d151395266c3469edcc4a2a6bfda172ab9
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-18.6K
Realised
$161.42
Win rate
100%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?
502 shares @ 92.1¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$499.55
$36.96
- YES
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?
172 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$169.53
$4.53
- NO
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
162 shares @ 73.2¢·now 89.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$144.38
$25.57
- NO
Will MrBeast hit 515 million subscribers by July 31?
130 shares @ 77.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$129.74
$29.64
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?
207 shares @ 9.9¢·now 20.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.49
$20.93
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
143 shares @ 70.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.71
$-69.29
- YES
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 58.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.20
$-39.20
- YES
Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
122 shares @ 7.2¢·now 5.1¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$6.18
$-2.62
- YES
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?
65 shares @ 36.7¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.00
$-22.05
- YES
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?
110 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.66
$-4.40
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?$194.47Jul 27, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?$165.33Jul 23, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?$90.68Jul 23, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?$78.64Jul 23, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Michael" make it into the IMDb Top 250?$64.52Jul 23, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$100.59Jul 23, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?$91.21Jul 23, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?$82.02Jul 23, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?$171.05Jul 16, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYICE Agent charged in Maine incident by August 31?$2.06Jul 16, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?$26.56Jul 16, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?$199.58Jul 16, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$64.65Jul 15, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.01Jul 15, 10:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oscar Isaac – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?$7.88Jul 15, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$51.11Jul 12, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$11.45Jul 12, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother GTA VI trailer released by July 31?$19.84Jul 12, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?$183.78Jul 12, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$20.40Jul 12, 17:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $56.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 23:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 23:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.