Will MrBeast's next Youtube video get over 50M views in its first week?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$100.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2022
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 100.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2022
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.youtube.com/c/MrBeast6000/videos
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will MrBeast's next Youtube video get over 50M views in its first week? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will MrBeast's next Youtube video get over 50M views in its first week? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 13:08SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
This market asks if the next YouTube video posted by the MrBeast verified YouTube account will have over 50,000,000 views at any time within the first 7 days it is posted. If the next video posted by the MrBeast verified YouTube account has over 50,000,000 views at any time within the first 7 days it is posted, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. As of this market’s posting, the first video posted after March 14, 2022, by the MrBeast verified YouTube account will be the video this market will base its resolution on. Only videos posted to the MrBeast verified YouTube account will count toward the resolution of this market. Any video posted on any account or channel affiliated with the verified MrBeast channel or MrBeast himself but not posted by the MrBeast verified YouTube account will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be the verified MrBeast YouTube account (https://www.youtube.com/c/MrBeast6000/featured). Once a new video is posted, the “views” counter will be checked at 12:00:00 PM ET each day, starting the day after the video is posted, for a week. For example, if the video is posted on March 17, at 10 AM ET, or March 17, 4 PM ET, the first check will be at 12:00 PM ET, March 18, and so on until the final check on March 24, 12:00 PM ET. If the video is deleted during the week time, the market will resolve 50-50. If YouTube is down or otherwise unavailable on the time of the final check, market resolution will be delayed for up to 3 days. If YouTube is still unavailable at that time, this market will resolve to 50-50. If, when checked on any of those three days allotted for a delay, over 50,000,000 views is recorded by YouTube, this market will resolve to "Yes". If the MrBeast verified YouTube account does not post any new video by July 1, 2022, this market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
mrbeastReason
Question text contains "mrbeast" — matched the Culture keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will MrBeast's next Youtube video get over 50M views in its first week?"?
As of Mon, 15 Jun 2026 13:08:31 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 1, 2022 (2022-07-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.youtube.com/c/MrBeast6000/videos.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.youtube.com/c/MrBeast6000/videos. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $9.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $100.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 100.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
2 wallets- 0x093d…28de867.8K
- 0x8c2f…64fa3
None.