Will MrBeast's video get between 60 and 62 million views on day 3?
Probability
4¢
1h
+2.1pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$14.6K
Liquidity
$2.8K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 5.2× turnover
$14.6k traded against $2.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 03:21SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 3h ago
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
4Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 72 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 72 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "100 People Simulate Being Stranded In The Wilderness", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Zy5VLcEbZc. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Alerts
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