Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30?
Probability
5¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
-5.5pp
24h Vol
$1.5K
Liquidity
$19.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-23.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 5¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $19.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.4h
- 13:35SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 5¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 10¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 10¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 10¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 10¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 10¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 10¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 10¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 10¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 10¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 9¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 9¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 10¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Lebanon Joseph Aoun talks with Benjamin Netanyahu between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between Joseph Aoun and Benjamin Netanyahu, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).