Belated-Penguin
0x1b648bc7d317f7c8bfeff7e91f391c224254bd0e
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-72.02
Win rate
48%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- NO
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30?
935 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$935.00
$121.55
- NO
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?
564 shares @ 37.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$564.00
$355.32
- YES
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
5 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.00
$1.55
- NO
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 44.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.81
$1.49
- NO
Will Darko Rajakovic win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?
1 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.04
- NO
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.00
$0.05
- NO
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 89.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.00
$0.10
- YES
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 36.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.97
$-0.82
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 95.9¢·now 93.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.94
$-0.02
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.60
$-0.54
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?$16.10Jun 15, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$435.29Apr 27, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$429.78Apr 24, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30?$813.45Apr 23, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?$208.68Apr 23, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win more than 62.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$2.00Apr 14, 07:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?$4.01Apr 14, 07:54 UTC
- REDEEMSouthern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 142.5$386.00Apr 14, 07:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?$708.00Apr 14, 07:54 UTC
- TRADESELLDatabricks IPO before 2027?$123.82Apr 13, 04:42 UTC
- TRADESELLDatabricks IPO before 2027?$314.88Apr 12, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLDatabricks IPO before 2027?$316.68Apr 12, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYDatabricks IPO before 2027?$658.70Apr 11, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$171.72Apr 9, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$445.73Apr 9, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?$40.96Apr 9, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?$42.24Apr 7, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELLGRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?$43.29Mar 30, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?$424.09Mar 30, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$850.45Mar 30, 05:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
48% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $261.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 04:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 15:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.