Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$13.20
Liquidity
$12.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 13¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 490h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $12.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 490.3h
- 13:44SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 490h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 13¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 12¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 12¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 12¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 12¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 12¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 10 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 10 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).