Complete-Referendum
0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
141
Open notional
$180.1K
Total PnL
$-80.3K
Realised
$-43.0K
Win rate
39%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 141- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
143088 shares @ 28.1¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$123.7K
$83.5K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
31497 shares @ 68.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.9K
$6.2K
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
16005 shares @ 38.7¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.6K
$443.25
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
30772 shares @ 13.5¢·now 16.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.1K
$909.96
- YES
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
4963 shares @ 35.1¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.2K
$1.5K
- NO
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
3709 shares @ 70.3¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.0K
$379.64
- YES
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
3333 shares @ 25.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.1K
$1.3K
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
7268 shares @ 48.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.1K
$-1.4K
- YES
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
3709 shares @ 26.6¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.5K
$535.68
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
4444 shares @ 23.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.3K
$288.86
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$785.00Jun 15, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.79Jun 15, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$3.11Jun 15, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$877.69Jun 15, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$24.17Jun 15, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$0.08Jun 15, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$0.21Jun 15, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$0.04Jun 15, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$20.83Jun 15, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$4.00Jun 15, 04:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$46.0KJun 15, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$0.67Jun 15, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$5.46Jun 15, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$7.29Jun 15, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$3.04Jun 15, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$12.42Jun 15, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$0.04Jun 15, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$2.17Jun 15, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$0.25Jun 15, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$4.44Jun 15, 04:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$6.6K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
May 23, 11:37 UTC → May 23, 11:32 UTC
- BUYWill FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?$6.6K@70¢May 23, 11:32 UTC
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$6.6K
1 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?
$6.6K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.3K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 22:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 08:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.