OtherMulti-outcomeExpires May 16, 2026

Will Norway be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?

Probability

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$4.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.1pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 486h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 486.1h

    LOW
  • 17:52Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 486h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at 1d ago (to 1¢).

Show all 17 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 00:00 · -4.6pp → 1¢
  • 22:00 · -5.0pp → 1¢
  • 21:00 · -4.5pp → 1¢
  • 20:00 · -4.3pp → 1¢
  • 18:00 · -4.2pp → 1¢
  • 1d ago · -4.7pp → 1¢
  • 1d ago · -5.0pp → 1¢
  • 1d ago · -4.3pp → 1¢
  • 1d ago · -4.0pp → 1¢
  • 1d ago · -4.7pp → 1¢
  • 1d ago · -3.2pp → 1¢
  • 1d ago · -3.3pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -4.0pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -3.2pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -3.4pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -4.0pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -3.3pp → 1¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to the Nordic country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places highest. For the purposes of this market, the Nordic countries are Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Sweden. If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
eurovision.tv
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.