Will NYC fully reopen by July 1?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 100.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This is a market on whether New York City will meet Mayor Bill de Blasio’s target to “fully reopen” by July 1, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at any time before July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET, an official announcement is made by the City of New York which has the effect of allowing all of the following to reopen at full capacity: restaurants, stores, shops, offices, hair salons, barber shops, gyms, arenas, stadiums, theaters, and museums. All of the previously listed establishments and venues must be allowed to reopen at full capacity for this market to resolve to “Yes”. Reopening at full capacity will mean the establishments and venues listed above have no COVID-related capacity limits (i.e. they are able to return to their pre-COVID capacity limits), and no requirements for patrons or employees to physically distance from each other. This market will still resolve to “Yes” if the establishments and venues listed above reopen at full capacity, but such a reopening is restricted to only a subset of people who meet certain requirements--for example, they are fully vaccinated or have had a negative covid test within the last 72 hours. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the previously listed venues reopen at full capacity, but there are still requirements to wear masks indoors. Otherwise, if the criteria for this market to resolve to “Yes” are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, an official announcement will include updates to official New York City webpages (e.g. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/coronavirus/index.page), and/or press releases or other statements to the press or public from the Office of the Mayor of New York City (https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news.page). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). Update: - The reopening announcement must come from NYC or the Mayor’s Office. A reopening announcement by only the State of New York or the Governor’s Office will not count. - This market concerns whether, before July 1, 2021, NYC will announce that a full reopening (as defined in the rules) is allowed on or before July 1, 2021, not whether the City or its businesses will implement such a reopening on or before July 1, 2021. - If the reopening requires physically distancing, for either vaccinated or unvaccinated people, this market will resolve to “No.”

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